Perspectives on future sea ice and navigability in the Arctic

Abstract. The retreat of sea ice has been found to be very significant in the Arctic under global warming. It is projected continue and will have great impacts on navigation. Perspectives changes navigability are crucial circulation pattern future Arctic. In this investigation, decadal parameters were evaluated by multi-model from Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6, was assessed two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) vessel classes with transportation accessibility model. extent shows a high possibility decreasing along SSP5-8.5 current emissions climate change. rate increase March but decrease September until 2060, when oldest completely disappeared reach an irreversible tipping point. Sea thickness expected transit certain parts, declining ?0.22 m per decade after 2060. Both concentration volume thoroughly decline at rates, greater than September. Open water ships able cross Northern Route Northwest Passage between August October during period 2045 2055, maximum navigable percentage time for Polar Class 6 (PC6) shift October–December 2021 2030, October. addition, central passage open PC6 2021–2030.